The National Bank of Serbia (hereinafter: NBS), as part of its regular monitoring of developments in the financial market, publishes reports on lending activity trends with the aim of providing a comprehensive and reliable overview of conditions in the domestic market. These reports analyze developments in lending activity, borrowing costs for the corporate sector and households, as well as conditions in the credit market that determine the supply and demand for loans. In this way, they enable a more complete understanding of lending dynamics in different observed periods, as well as the identification of factors influencing changes in the volume and structure of banks’ placements.

NBS has published its latest Report on the Results of the Bank Lending Survey for the fourth quarter of 2025. The survey was conducted between 31^st December 2025 and 30^th January 2026 and included the views of 17 banks that account for more than 99% of the total balance sheet of the banking sector in the Republic of Serbia, which gives the results a high degree of representativeness and reliability.

The survey results provide a basis for assessing current developments in the domestic credit market. They are presented in the form of net percentages – negative values indicate easing of credit standards, while positive values indicate tightening. This methodological approach provides insight into the direction and intensity of changes, rather than only their formal existence.

Corporate Loans

Corporate loans further accelerated their year-on-year growth during Q4, reaching 11.3% in December (up from 9.0% in September), excluding the effect of exchange rate movements, supported by favorable borrowing costs and eased credit standards. Corporate loans increased by RSD 46.8 billion in Q4. The growth in corporate lending contributed to an increase in their share in GDP to 18% at the end of 2025 (from 17.3% at the end of 2024).

During the last quarter of 2025, banks overall continued the trend of easing credit standards for the corporate sector. The easing was more pronounced for long-term dinar and foreign-currency-indexed loans, where net percentages indicated declines in the range of approximately −10% to −20%, suggesting banks’ willingness to finance investment projects. In contrast, for short-term loans across all currency structures, standards remained stable (net percentage around zero), indicating that no significant changes in lending criteria occurred in this segment. Compared to Q2 2025, the easing observed in Q4 2025 was more pronounced for long-term placements, while the short-term financing segment continued to show a relatively restrictive approach.

By sector, the highest borrowing during Q4 was recorded in the energy sector, real estate activities, and construction, while the largest decline in borrowing was recorded in transport and trade.

By client size, credit standards were eased for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, increasing their share in total corporate loans by 1.5 percentage points to 60.6% in December, while their year-on-year growth accelerated to 11.2%. On the other hand, standards for large enterprises and farmers remained unchanged. This trend may be interpreted as banks’ attempt to strengthen their market position in a segment that traditionally carries higher margins but also higher risk, while maintaining a more cautious approach toward large systemic clients.

Loans for liquidity and working capital purposes remained the most prevalent, accounting for 56% of newly approved corporate loans.

Within the structure of foreign-currency and foreign-currency-indexed loans, slightly more than 80% of loans in December were linked to EURIBOR, while about 22% of dinar corporate loans were linked to BELIBOR, predominantly the three-month and one-month rates.

The share of non-performing loans (NPLs) in total corporate loans declined to a new record low of 1.4% in December, 0.2 percentage points lower than in September.

Regarding specific lending conditions, the following developments were recorded:

• reduction in interest margins (negative net percentages, in some cases up to −20%);
• reduction in commissions and fees;
• extension of maximum loan maturities.

At the same time, banks tightened collateral requirements (positive net percentage) and reduced maximum loan amounts.

This combination suggests that banks are willing to offer more favorable pricing conditions while maintaining control over risk exposure through collateral instruments.

Corporate demand for loans increased across almost all categories in Q4 2025, with stronger growth in the small and medium-sized enterprise segment. Net percentages for certain loan types exceeded 20%, and in some segments reached as much as 30%. As in the previous two quarters, the increase was primarily driven by the need to finance working capital and capital investments. Some companies also opted for alternative sources of financing, which somewhat moderated the intensity of the increase in credit demand.

Compared to Q2 2025, the intensity of demand growth was more pronounced in Q4 2025, which may also be linked to seasonal factors, as the last quarter of the calendar year is often a period of intensified investment activity and financial closing of business cycles.

However, banks expect a moderate decline in demand in the first quarter of 2026, which may indicate some slowing in borrowing dynamics and increased reliance on alternative sources of financing. Such expectations do not necessarily signal a deterioration in business conditions, but rather stabilization following the stronger growth recorded in the last quarter of 2025.

Household Loans

Loans to households continued to accelerate their year-on-year growth during Q4, reaching 19.5% in December (excluding exchange-rate effects), compared to 16.1% in September. Household loans increased by RSD 94.1 billion in Q4, excluding exchange-rate effects, marking the largest quarterly increase since Q3 2008. In addition to the easing of monetary policy and credit standards, this growth was supported by measures aimed at improving lending conditions for lower-income citizens, as well as subsidized housing loans for young people. Negative net percentages between −20% and −40% were recorded for cash loans, refinancing loans, as well as housing and consumer loans.

Compared to Q2 2025, the easing in Q4 2025 was more pronounced, especially for dinar loans. The key factor behind the easing of standards was competition in the banking sector. For foreign-currency-indexed loans, additional influence came from banks’ greater risk appetite and more positive expectations regarding the real estate market.

Thanks to the stronger growth of dinar loans compared to foreign-currency-indexed loans, the degree of dinarization of total loans to the corporate and household sectors increased to 39.3% (from 38.6% in September), reaching its highest level so far. The degree of dinarization of household loans rose to 56.2% (from 56.0%), while that of corporate loans increased to 22.9% (from 21.7%).

Within the structure of foreign-currency and foreign-currency-indexed household loans, slightly less than 54% were linked to EURIBOR, mostly the six-month rate. Regarding housing loans, the share of loans with fixed interest rates increased from 20% in September 2023 to 44% at the end of 2025. In the structure of dinar household loans, about 93% were approved with fixed interest rates, while among loans approved with variable interest rates, those linked to the three-month BELIBOR were the most common.

The share of non-performing loans in total household loans declined by an additional 0.1 percentage point during Q4, reaching a new low of 2.7% in December.

Lending conditions were further eased through reduced interest margins, more lenient collateral requirements, and increased maximum loan amounts in certain categories. These changes directly affect the availability of financing for citizens, particularly in the case of cash and housing loans.

The most pronounced changes in Q4 2025 were recorded on the demand side of households. Net percentages of demand growth for cash loans, refinancing loans, and housing loans ranged from 40% to 60% in some categories, representing significantly stronger growth compared to the corporate sector.

Demand growth was driven by:

• the need for refinancing;
• purchases of durable consumer goods;
• purchases of real estate;
• growth in disposable household income.

Banks expect demand to continue growing in the first quarter of 2026, but at a more moderate pace, which may indicate gradual saturation in certain segments of the credit market.

Overall survey results indicate that the end of 2025 was marked by a simultaneous easing of credit standards and an increase in demand, particularly in the household segment, where net percentages were twice as high as in the corporate sector. Banks demonstrated willingness to stimulate lending activity through pricing instruments while maintaining caution by tightening collateral requirements and limiting maximum loan amounts in the corporate segment. Such an approach maintains a balance between loan growth and preserving the quality of the credit portfolio.

If expectations for the first quarter of 2026 materialize, it may be concluded that banks’ credit policy will enter a phase of stabilization, with a potential slowdown in demand dynamics in the corporate sector and continued, though more moderate, growth in the household segment.